Post #1078966: ICYMI because I was in Twitter jail: I never gave…
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ICYMI because I was in Twitter jail: I never gave up on Stock-to-Flow! Of course S2F can be spurious, overfitted, can not be cointegration tested because S2F nonrandom, autocorrelation, no demand etc, but .. this cycle isn't over and IMO next halvingg will (again) pump #bitcoin

ICYMI because I was in Twitter jail: I never gave up on Stock-to-Flow! Of course S2F can be spurious, overfitted, can not be cointegration tested because S2F nonrandom, autocorrelation, no demand etc, but .. this cycle isn't over and IMO next halvingg will (again) pump #bitcoin

Oct 27, 2022 12:26 AM |
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See those 3 red bitcoin pumps, after all 3 halvings (every 210,000 blocks/~4y)? Stock-to-Flow haters want you to believe that was random, a spurious correlation. IMO S2F will be correct again, and we will see another red pump after April 2024 halving #Bitcoin is getting stronger into the halving #Bitcoin April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60). 1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)? 2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)? 3) will S2F t Stock-to-Flow hypothesis is: scarcity drives value. Data shows that #Bitcoin value indeed increases each halving cycle when scarcity (S2F) doubles. If BTC value decreases post halving then S2F hypothesis is rejected. Did you know there is a profitabl #Bitcoin > 2Y realized > 5M realized > realized price What's next? - BTC > $33k (back in S2F model 1 st.deviation band) - BTC > $60k (back to S2F model value) - BTC in $100k-1m range (S2F value post 2024 halving) I guess this color scheme is better because it aligns with green&red candles in #Bitcoin bull&bear markets? stage 1: early bull <- we are here stage 2: late bull stage 3: early bear stage 4: late bear

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