Based on the forward curve, the Fed is expected to push the real rate up to 2.1%. Add 1% from the effects of QT, and you get to a properly restrictive zone. As we see here, this Fed cycle has fallen in line with past cycles. We may be approaching an

Fed impact: The increase in the terminal rate has pushed long rates back up to their June peaks. Note how the 10yr is lagging behind the terminal rate: that’s the inversion at play.