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#Bitcoin momentum is real, no bull trap

#Bitcoin momentum is real, no bull trap

Mar 31, 2023 10:23 AM |

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PlanBud83Cuddf8Ud83Cuddfb @100trillionusd

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See those 3 red bitcoin pumps, after all 3 halvings (every 210,000 blocks/~4y)? Stock-to-Flow haters want you to believe that was random, a spurious correlation. IMO S2F will be correct again, and we will see another red pump after April 2024 halving

#Bitcoin is getting stronger into the halving

#Bitcoin April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60). 1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)? 2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)? 3) will S2F t

Stock-to-Flow hypothesis is: scarcity drives value. Data shows that #Bitcoin value indeed increases each halving cycle when scarcity (S2F) doubles. If BTC value decreases post halving then S2F hypothesis is rejected. Did you know there is a profitabl

#Bitcoin > 2Y realized > 5M realized > realized price What's next? - BTC > $33k (back in S2F model 1 st.deviation band) - BTC > $60k (back to S2F model value) - BTC in $100k-1m range (S2F value post 2024 halving)

I guess this color scheme is better because it aligns with green&red candles in #Bitcoin bull&bear markets? stage 1: early bull <- we are here stage 2: late bull stage 3: early bear stage 4: late bear